Arka Gdynia 1-2 Gornik Leczna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
30%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.74
6+ Goals
13%
15.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 28% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
58%
-14.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
30%
Away Win
18%
+12.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Gornik Leczna EU Bookmakers 21%
-8% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +18%
1.99/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.05
+8% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +51%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
313 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arka Gdynia
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Gornik Leczna
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.12.2023 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 0-0 HT 0-0 Gornik Leczna Gornik Leczna POL1
28.07.2023 Gornik Leczna Gornik Leczna 0-0 HT 0-0 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
13.03.2023 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 0-1 HT 0-1 Gornik Leczna Gornik Leczna POL1
01.09.2022 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 0-0 HT 0-0 Gornik Leczna Gornik Leczna POLK
14.08.2022 Gornik Leczna Gornik Leczna 1-2 HT 1-1 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
13.03.2021 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 0-2 HT 0-0 Gornik Leczna Gornik Leczna POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arka Gdynia
1-2
AWAY Gornik Leczna
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Leczna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gornik Leczna nicked a narrow win over Arka Gdynia 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Arka Gdynia at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Arka Gdynia had 47% of the ball to Gornik Leczna's 53%, shots finished 17-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gornik Leczna led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Arka Gdynia and 0.67 for Gornik Leczna.

What was the final score of Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Leczna?

Arka Gdynia 1-2 Gornik Leczna in the Poland - 1st Division on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Leczna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arka Gdynia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Arka Gdynia 43%, draw 26%, Gornik Leczna 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arka Gdynia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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