Motor Lublin 0-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 25 Sep 2024

Motor Lublin
0-2 HT 0-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok
📅25/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
35%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.06
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.09
6+ Goals
11%
9.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
3.6
1/2
8%
26.5
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
17%
5.75
X/2
8%
5.72
X/X
12%
5.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
26.5
2/2
19%
3.58
2/X
7%
12.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 10% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.8pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-1.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.9pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Motor Lublin v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 40%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +11%
1.64/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.50
-25% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 80%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
24.9 Crosses 15.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.7

Motor Lublin 0-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
0-2
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
0.74 xG 0.81
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
335 Passes 335
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok beat Motor Lublin 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Jagiellonia Bialystok found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 51% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 49%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 0.74 to 0.81.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Motor Lublin 0-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motor Lublin win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 38%, draw 27%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 35%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Motor Lublin) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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