Leicester City 1-3 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 25 Oct 2024

Leicester City
1-3 HT 1-1
Nottingham Forest
📅25/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
37%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.78
Over 2.5
42%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.04
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.84
6+ Goals
10%
16.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 31% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.22
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
5%
13.45
X/1
15%
5.88
X/2
11%
5.06
X/X
18%
4.4
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
21%
3.41
2/X
6%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.2pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.0pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-1.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.5pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leicester City v Nottingham Forest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leicester City EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 43%
-1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.23/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/1.03
-19% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +31%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
260 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 75%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
17.4 Crosses 16.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.2

Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leicester City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.25 xG 1.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
416 Passes 270
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.01.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-0 HT 0-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
03.10.2022 Leicester City Leicester City 4-0 HT 3-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
06.02.2022 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 4-1 HT 3-1 Leicester City Leicester City FAK
19.02.2014 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-2 HT 2-1 Leicester City Leicester City İNCL
09.11.2013 Leicester City Leicester City 0-2 HT 0-2 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
04.05.2013 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-3 HT 1-2 Leicester City Leicester City İNCL

Leicester City 1-3 Nottingham Forest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leicester City
1-3
AWAY Nottingham Forest
0.76 xG 1.73
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
482 Passes 231
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 30
26 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest beat Leicester City 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 30% / 37% — and on the day Nottingham Forest made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leicester City had 64% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 36%, shots finished 11-20, expected goals 0.76 to 1.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nottingham Forest led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Leicester City and 2.00 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest?

Leicester City 1-3 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nottingham Forest win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Leicester City 33%, draw 30%, Nottingham Forest 37%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nottingham Forest) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nottingham Forest) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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