Ekvador (K) 1-1 Şili (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 25 Oct 2024

Ekvador (K)
1-1 HT 1-1
Şili (K)
📅25/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Friendlies – 2024

Ekvador (K) vs Şili (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.75
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
44%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.0
Over 2.5
55%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.7
No
42%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.78
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.22
6+ Goals
9%
11.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.22 — our 29% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
22%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
23%
+7.0pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
44%
Away Win
53%
-8.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
46%
-1.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
54%
+1.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
55%
+3.1pp
42%
BTTS No
45%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ekvador (K) v Şili (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ekvador (K) EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Şili (K) EU Bookmakers 57%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / –
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
302 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
– Crosses 21.0
– Yellow Cards 0.0

Ekvador (K) 1-1 Şili (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ekvador (K)
1-1
AWAY Şili (K)
1.70 xG 1.28
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 1
173 Passes 238
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ekvador (K) vs Şili (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ekvador (K) and Şili (K) couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Şili (K) at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Ekvador (K) had 43% of the ball to Şili (K)'s 57%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.70 to 1.28.

What was the final score of Ekvador (K) vs Şili (K)?

Ekvador (K) 1-1 Şili (K) in the Friendlies on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ekvador (K) vs Şili (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Şili (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ekvador (K) 30%, draw 26%, Şili (K) 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Şili (K)), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Şili (K)) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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