Nong Bua Pitchaya 5-3 Ratchaburi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 25 Oct 2024

📅25/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.17
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
48%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
28%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
28%
+2.1pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.2pp
48%
Away Win
46%
+1.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.1pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nong Bua Pitchaya EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Ratchaburi EU Bookmakers 50%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.30/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/0.77
+26% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +14%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
235 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 86%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
13.2 Crosses 16.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nong Bua Pitchaya
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Ratchaburi
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.98 xG 1.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
246 Passes 289
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
05.02.2023 Ratchaburi Ratchaburi 2-1 HT 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya TAY
02.09.2022 Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-2 HT 0-2 Ratchaburi Ratchaburi TAY
23.04.2022 Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 HT 0-0 Ratchaburi Ratchaburi TAY
21.11.2021 Ratchaburi Ratchaburi 3-2 HT 1-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nong Bua Pitchaya
5-3
AWAY Ratchaburi
1.89 xG 2.95
31% Ball Possession 69%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 5
148 Passes 410
67% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 29
9 Crosses 31
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Ratchaburi 5-3. Half-time: 4-0. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Ratchaburi at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Nong Bua Pitchaya had 31% of the ball to Ratchaburi's 69%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.89 to 2.95 — on chances, Ratchaburi could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Ratchaburi led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 2.00 for Ratchaburi.

What was the final score of Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?

Nong Bua Pitchaya 5-3 Ratchaburi in the Thailand - 1st Division on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ratchaburi win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Nong Bua Pitchaya 30%, draw 22%, Ratchaburi 48%. The final score 5-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ratchaburi) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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