Port Vale 1-1 Crewe Alexandra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 25 Nov 2024

Port Vale
1-1 HT 1-0
Crewe Alexandra
📅25/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Port Vale vs Crewe Alexandra Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
4.58
6+ Goals
9%
24.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.91
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
17%
4.46
X/2
8%
7.34
X/X
12%
3.96
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
10%
5.89
2/X
8%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 59% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+2.3pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.5pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-0.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.5pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Port Vale v Crewe Alexandra — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Port Vale EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +14%
1.45/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.14
+5% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
263 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 68%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
21.5 Crosses 16.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.9

Port Vale vs Crewe Alexandra Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Port Vale
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.10 xG 0.92
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
361 Passes 371
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.09.2023 Port Vale Port Vale 1-0 HT 1-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İNTK
29.08.2023 Port Vale Port Vale 0-0 HT 0-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İNLK
02.11.2019 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 0-1 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
06.04.2019 Port Vale Port Vale 1-0 HT 0-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
22.09.2018 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 0-1 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
02.04.2018 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 2-2 HT 1-1 Port Vale Port Vale İN2

Port Vale 1-1 Crewe Alexandra — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Port Vale
1-1
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
0.76 xG 1.88
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 24
1 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
171 Passes 375
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 44
10 Crosses 37
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Port Vale vs Crewe Alexandra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Port Vale and Crewe Alexandra couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Port Vale at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Port Vale had 35% of the ball to Crewe Alexandra's 65%, shots finished 9-24, expected goals 0.76 to 1.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Port Vale had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Port Vale and 0.33 for Crewe Alexandra.

What was the final score of Port Vale vs Crewe Alexandra?

Port Vale 1-1 Crewe Alexandra in the England - 2nd Division on 25/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Port Vale vs Crewe Alexandra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Port Vale 48%, draw 27%, Crewe Alexandra 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Port Vale), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Port Vale) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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