Catanzaro 1-1 Palermo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 26 Jan 2024

Catanzaro
1-1 HT 1-0
Palermo
📅26/01/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

Catanzaro vs Palermo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
36%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.08
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.76
6+ Goals
11%
16.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 29% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.32
1/2
8%
33.0
1/X
9%
12.35
X/1
17%
5.12
X/2
13%
6.22
X/X
10%
4.19
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
15%
4.39
2/X
6%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.0pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.0pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+5.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Catanzaro v Palermo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Catanzaro EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Palermo EU Bookmakers 34%
-8% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.28/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.45
+6% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -26%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
369 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
19.1 Crosses 19.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5

Catanzaro vs Palermo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Catanzaro
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Palermo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.11 xG 0.79
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
352 Passes 288
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 31
6 Crosses 42
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.12.2023 Palermo Palermo 1-2 HT 0-1 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
24.01.2022 Catanzaro Catanzaro 0-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTC
03.11.2021 Catanzaro Catanzaro 1-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTCK
19.09.2021 Palermo Palermo 0-0 HT 0-0 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTC
21.02.2021 Palermo Palermo 1-2 HT 1-1 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTC
04.11.2020 Catanzaro Catanzaro 1-1 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTC

Catanzaro 1-1 Palermo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Catanzaro
1-1
AWAY Palermo
0.79 xG 1.45
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
518 Passes 269
90% Pass Accuracy 80%
10 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Catanzaro vs Palermo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Catanzaro and Palermo shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 25% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Catanzaro had 62% of the ball to Palermo's 38%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 0.79 to 1.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Catanzaro had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Catanzaro and 0.50 for Palermo.

What was the final score of Catanzaro vs Palermo?

Catanzaro 1-1 Palermo in the Italy - Serie B on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Catanzaro vs Palermo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Catanzaro win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Catanzaro 39%, draw 25%, Palermo 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Catanzaro), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Catanzaro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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