Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 26 Jan 2024

📅26/01/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.72
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.36
6+ Goals
10%
22.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.11
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.65
X/1 EV+ ✓
25%
4.59
X/2
10%
6.39
X/X
13%
4.08
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
10%
4.94
2/X
7%
14.0
Value flag · X/1 at 4.59 — our 25% vs market 16.8%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
43%
+6.2pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.3pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-2.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.6pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eintracht Frankfurt EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -17%
1.53/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.74
-15% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
296 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 70%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
26.5 Crosses 16.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eintracht Frankfurt
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Mainz 05
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.57 xG 1.06
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
421 Passes 266
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.08.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-1 HT 1-0 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt AL1
13.05.2023 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 HT 2-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
13.11.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-1 HT 1-0 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt AL1
14.05.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-2 HT 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt AL1
18.12.2021 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
09.05.2021 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eintracht Frankfurt
1-0
AWAY Mainz 05
1.30 xG 0.76
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 1
482 Passes 352
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eintracht Frankfurt edged past Mainz 05 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Eintracht Frankfurt as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Eintracht Frankfurt had 56% of the ball to Mainz 05's 44%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 1.30 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Eintracht Frankfurt had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0.83 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mainz 05?

Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eintracht Frankfurt win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Eintracht Frankfurt 49%, draw 25%, Mainz 05 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Eintracht Frankfurt), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Eintracht Frankfurt) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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