Melbourne Victory (K) 1-1 Sydney (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 26 Jan 2024

📅26/01/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
19%
3.45
Away
43%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
12%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
16%
X/X
4%
2/1
3%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.1pp
19%
Draw
26%
-6.9pp
43%
Away Win
37%
+6.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.3pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory (K) EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Sydney (K) EU Bookmakers 40%
+43% / +43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+40% / +76% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
311 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 79%
38.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
30.0 Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Sydney (K)
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
1.07 xG 1.71
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
213 Passes 280
64% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
17.11.2019 Sydney (K) Sydney (K) 3-0 HT 2-0 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
27.01.2019 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 2-2 HT 0-1 Sydney (K) Sydney (K) AVUSTW
25.11.2018 Sydney (K) Sydney (K) 2-3 HT 1-2 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
26.01.2018 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 1-2 HT 0-2 Sydney (K) Sydney (K) AVUSTW
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
1-1
AWAY Sydney (K)
0.99 xG 1.31
61% Ball Possession 39%
7 Total Shots 23
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
470 Passes 265
79% Pass Accuracy 70%
19 Box Touches 35
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory (K) vs Sydney (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory (K) and Sydney (K) shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match split (38% / 19% / 43%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Melbourne Victory (K) had 61% of the ball to Sydney (K)'s 39%, shots finished 7-23, expected goals 0.99 to 1.31.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sydney (K) led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Melbourne Victory (K) and 2.25 for Sydney (K).

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory (K) vs Sydney (K)?

Melbourne Victory (K) 1-1 Sydney (K) in the Australia - W-League on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory (K) vs Sydney (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sydney (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory (K) 38%, draw 19%, Sydney (K) 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sydney (K)), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sydney (K)) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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