Melbourne Victory 1-1 Sydney — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 26 Jan 2024

Melbourne Victory
1-1 HT 1-1
Sydney
📅26/01/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Melbourne Victory vs Sydney Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
27%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.02
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.02
6+ Goals
11%
9.59
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.89
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
8%
13.15
X/1
14%
4.86
X/2
12%
6.56
X/X
12%
5.27
2/1
8%
23.45
2/2
8%
4.39
2/X
7%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
45%
+1.4pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.2pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-3.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.7pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne Victory v Sydney — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Sydney EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.59/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.73
-18% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
367 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 399 · 81%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.3
17.7 Crosses 19.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.5

Melbourne Victory vs Sydney Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Sydney
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.68 xG 1.15
43% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
330 Passes 462
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-0 HT 2-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS
21.10.2023 Sydney Sydney 0-2 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
04.03.2023 Sydney Sydney 1-0 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
26.01.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-2 HT 1-1 Sydney Sydney AVUS
08.10.2022 Sydney Sydney 2-3 HT 1-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
07.05.2022 Sydney Sydney 1-4 HT 1-3 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS

Melbourne Victory 1-1 Sydney — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory
1-1
AWAY Sydney
1.41 xG 1.10
67% Ball Possession 33%
19 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 3
515 Passes 219
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
39 Box Touches 21
28 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory vs Sydney
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory and Sydney shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Melbourne Victory had 67% of the ball to Sydney's 33%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.41 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Melbourne Victory and 1.00 for Sydney.

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Sydney?

Melbourne Victory 1-1 Sydney in the Australia - A-League on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Sydney?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 46%, draw 27%, Sydney 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Melbourne Victory), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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