Hercilio Luz 2-1 Avai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Catarinense 1, 26 Jan 2024

📅26/01/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
49%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
Over 2.5
49%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
29%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.4pp
49%
Away Win
49%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hercilio Luz EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Avai EU Bookmakers 53%
+30% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.59/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.44
+60% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -35%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
309 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hercilio Luz
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Avai
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.01.2023 Hercilio Luz Hercilio Luz 1-0 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BRCAT1
05.03.2022 Avai Avai 3-0 HT 1-0 Hercilio Luz Hercilio Luz BRCAT1
18.04.2021 Avai Avai 2-0 HT 0-0 Hercilio Luz Hercilio Luz BRCAT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hercilio Luz
2-1
AWAY Avai
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Hercilio Luz vs Avai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hercilio Luz squeezed past Avai 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Avai at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hercilio Luz had 43% of the ball to Avai's 57%, shots finished 16-11.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Avai led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Hercilio Luz and 1.67 for Avai.

What was the final score of Hercilio Luz vs Avai?

Hercilio Luz 2-1 Avai in the Brazil - Catarinense 1 on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hercilio Luz vs Avai?

Before kick-off our model rated an Avai win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Hercilio Luz 24%, draw 27%, Avai 49%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Avai) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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