Hercilio Luz vs Avai Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Hercilio Luz v Avai — Team-Based Signals
Hercilio Luz vs Avai Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Avai
BRCAT1
3-0
HT 1-0
Hercilio Luz
BRCAT1
2-0
HT 0-0
Hercilio Luz
BRCAT1
Hercilio Luz 2-1 Avai — Actual Match Statistics
Hercilio Luz squeezed past Avai 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Avai at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Hercilio Luz had 43% of the ball to Avai's 57%, shots finished 16-11.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Avai led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Hercilio Luz and 1.67 for Avai.
What was the final score of Hercilio Luz vs Avai?
Hercilio Luz 2-1 Avai in the Brazil - Catarinense 1 on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Hercilio Luz vs Avai?
Before kick-off our model rated an Avai win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Hercilio Luz 24%, draw 27%, Avai 49%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.