HJK Helsinki 1-0 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - League Cup, 26 Jan 2024

📅26/01/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.45
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.21
2-3 Goals
45%
1.85
4-5 Goals
19%
2.94
6+ Goals
12%
8.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.76
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
17.65
X/1
18%
3.62
X/2
6%
13.15
X/X
11%
6.46
2/1
11%
21.3
2/2
9%
10.1
2/X
5%
18.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
65%
-7.7pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.9pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+5.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 18%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
2.52/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.19/1.47
+110% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -84% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
3W-1D-2L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.55 xG 0.35
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
489 Passes 125
84% Pass Accuracy 57%
30 Box Touches 5
38 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.08.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 4-2 HT 2-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
27.05.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
27.01.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 3-0 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
30.07.2022 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
22.06.2022 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-1 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
05.02.2022 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-3 HT 2-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki nicked a narrow win over IFK Mariehamn 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for HJK Helsinki and 1.17 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn?

HJK Helsinki 1-0 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - League Cup on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 57%, draw 22%, IFK Mariehamn 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →