Lyon 2-3 Rennes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 26 Jan 2024

Lyon
2-3 HT 0-3
Rennes
📅26/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Lyon vs Rennes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.76
6+ Goals
10%
16.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 29% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.56
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
11%
13.1
X/1
11%
5.27
X/2
14%
5.64
X/X
13%
4.42
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
18%
3.92
2/X
5%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
38%
-4.8pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.1pp
38%
Away Win
35%
+3.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.0pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon v Rennes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Rennes EU Bookmakers 38%
+8% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -18%
1.46/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.38
+48% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 80%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
14.5 Crosses 18.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8

Lyon vs Rennes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Rennes
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.37 xG 1.53
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
451 Passes 338
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Rennes Rennes 0-1 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
09.04.2023 Lyon Lyon 3-1 HT 0-1 Rennes Rennes FR1
16.10.2022 Rennes Rennes 3-2 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
13.03.2022 Lyon Lyon 2-4 HT 0-3 Rennes Rennes FR1
07.11.2021 Rennes Rennes 4-1 HT 1-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
03.03.2021 Lyon Lyon 1-0 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1

Lyon 2-3 Rennes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
2-3
AWAY Rennes
0.93 xG 0.85
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 2
524 Passes 281
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Rennes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rennes nicked a narrow win over Lyon 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Rennes made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Lyon had 63% of the ball to Rennes's 37%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.93 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lyon and 2.00 for Rennes.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Rennes?

Lyon 2-3 Rennes in the France - Ligue 1 on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Rennes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rennes win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lyon 34%, draw 28%, Rennes 38%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rennes) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rennes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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