NK Varazdin 1-2 Slaven Belupo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 26 Jan 2024

📅26/01/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.04
2-3 Goals
46%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
3.57
6+ Goals
10%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 26% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.4pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 32%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
0.95/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.10
-35% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
286 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
19.8 Crosses 21.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Slaven Belupo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.19 xG 0.95
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
371 Passes 198
78% Pass Accuracy 66%
19 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 3-2 HT 2-2 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
28.07.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-2 HT 2-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
07.04.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-1 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
27.01.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
16.09.2022 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
17.07.2022 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-1 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
1-2
AWAY Slaven Belupo
2.01 xG 1.20
63% Ball Possession 37%
23 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
400 Passes 210
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
34 Box Touches 12
32 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Slaven Belupo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slaven Belupo edged past NK Varazdin 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was NK Varazdin at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 63% of the ball to Slaven Belupo's 37%, shots finished 23-10, expected goals 2.01 to 1.20 — on chances, NK Varazdin could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Slaven Belupo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.33 for Slaven Belupo.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Slaven Belupo?

NK Varazdin 1-2 Slaven Belupo in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Slaven Belupo?

Before kick-off our model rated a NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 41%, draw 30%, Slaven Belupo 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NK Varazdin), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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