Sportivo Ameliano 1-4 Cerro Porteno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 26 Jan 2024

📅26/01/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.75
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
45%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
23%
+9.4pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
45%
Away Win
53%
-8.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.8pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sportivo Ameliano EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Porteno EU Bookmakers 57%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -5%
0.87/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/0.86
-19% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -1%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
290 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sportivo Ameliano
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Cerro Porteno
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.09.2023 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 1-3 HT 1-1 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PARK
16.07.2023 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
14.04.2023 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 1-2 HT 0-2 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
30.01.2023 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 1-1 HT 0-1 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
06.10.2022 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 2-1 HT 1-1 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
30.07.2022 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 0-2 HT 0-0 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sportivo Ameliano
1-4
AWAY Cerro Porteno
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Porteno ran out comfortable winners over Sportivo Ameliano 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cerro Porteno as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sportivo Ameliano had 40% of the ball to Cerro Porteno's 60%, shots finished 6-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerro Porteno led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.50 for Cerro Porteno.

What was the final score of Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno?

Sportivo Ameliano 1-4 Cerro Porteno in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerro Porteno win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sportivo Ameliano 33%, draw 23%, Cerro Porteno 45%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro Porteno) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cerro Porteno)
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