UTC Cajamarca 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 26 Jan 2024

📅26/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.75
Over 2.5
41%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.76
No
59%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
6%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.7pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
53%
+5.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
47%
-5.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
53%
-11.8pp
59%
BTTS No
47%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UTC Cajamarca EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 32%
+11% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.42/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.52
+11% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -49% / +67%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
24.1 Crosses 15.3
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UTC Cajamarca
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.08 xG 0.97
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 12
292 Passes 250
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.09.2023 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
16.04.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 2-2 HT 1-1 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UTC Cajamarca
1-0
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
1.42 xG 0.31
35% Ball Possession 65%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
117 Passes 253
61% Pass Accuracy 73%
9 Box Touches 16
11 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UTC Cajamarca nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had UTC Cajamarca as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, UTC Cajamarca had 35% of the ball to Deportivo Garcilaso's 65%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.42 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for UTC Cajamarca and 1.00 for Deportivo Garcilaso.

What was the final score of UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

UTC Cajamarca 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru - Premier League on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Before kick-off our model rated a UTC Cajamarca win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split UTC Cajamarca 42%, draw 29%, Deportivo Garcilaso 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UTC Cajamarca), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (UTC Cajamarca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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