AGF Aarhus 2-1 Philadelphia Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 26 Jan 2025

AGF Aarhus
2-1
Philadelphia Union
📅26/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Friendlies – 2024/2025

AGF Aarhus vs Philadelphia Union Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
39%
2.51
Over Pick
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.53
No
41%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
21%
5.2
2-3
40%
1.95
4-5
26%
2.53
6+
13%
5.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
6%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 61% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
50%
Home Win
58%
-8.7pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.5pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+10.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.5pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.5pp
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
-2.2pp
41%
BTTS No
39%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AGF Aarhus v Philadelphia Union — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus The Market 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Philadelphia Union The Market 23%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +62% / +62%
2.94/0.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/1.00
+49% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +73%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
379 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.5 Yellow Cards –

AGF Aarhus 2-1 Philadelphia Union — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
2-1
AWAY Philadelphia Union
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Philadelphia Union
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus nicked a narrow win over Philadelphia Union 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AGF Aarhus as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 46% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 54%, shots finished 15-11.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Philadelphia Union?

AGF Aarhus 2-1 Philadelphia Union in the Friendlies on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Philadelphia Union?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 50%, draw 20%, Philadelphia Union 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AGF Aarhus), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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