Al Gharraf 3-2 Baghdad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iraq - Premier League, 26 Jan 2026

Al Gharraf
3-2 HT 1-0
Baghdad
📅26/01/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Iraq - Premier League – 2025/2026

Al Gharraf vs Baghdad Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
22%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
Over 2.5
35%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
12%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
5%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+1.8pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.6pp
22%
Away Win
24%
-2.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.8pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Al Gharraf v Baghdad — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Gharraf EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Baghdad EU Bookmakers 28%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
0.47/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/0.99
-62% / +92% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
279 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 83%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Al Gharraf vs Baghdad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Gharraf nicked a narrow win over Baghdad 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Gharraf as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Al Gharraf vs Baghdad?

Al Gharraf 3-2 Baghdad in the Iraq - Premier League on 26/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Gharraf vs Baghdad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Gharraf win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Al Gharraf 48%, draw 30%, Baghdad 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Gharraf) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Gharraf) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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