Fiorentina 2-1 Lazio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 26 Feb 2024

Fiorentina
2-1 HT 0-1
Lazio
📅26/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Fiorentina vs Lazio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.78
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.2
6+ Goals
9%
20.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.91
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.4
X/1
17%
4.5
X/2
13%
7.01
X/X
15%
4.12
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
11%
5.45
2/X
7%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-2.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.5pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fiorentina v Lazio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Lazio EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +4%
1.54/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.50
-8% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
368 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 77%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
21.8 Crosses 12.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7

Fiorentina vs Lazio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Lazio
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.13 xG 1.51
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
402 Passes 397
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
30.10.2023 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
29.01.2023 Lazio Lazio 1-1 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
10.10.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-4 HT 0-2 Lazio Lazio İTA
05.02.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-3 HT 0-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
27.10.2021 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
08.05.2021 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-0 HT 1-0 Lazio Lazio İTA

Fiorentina 2-1 Lazio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
2-1
AWAY Lazio
2.92 xG 0.30
54% Ball Possession 46%
22 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 1
13 Corners 2
463 Passes 404
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Lazio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina squeezed past Lazio 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fiorentina had 54% of the ball to Lazio's 46%, shots finished 22-5, expected goals 2.92 to 0.30 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fiorentina's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Fiorentina and 1.67 for Lazio.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Lazio?

Fiorentina 2-1 Lazio in the Italy - Serie A on 26/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Lazio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 43%, draw 28%, Lazio 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ Under 2.5
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