26/02/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-0
2nd Score
1-1
Akragas vs Afragolese Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
Over
47%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2-3
34%
4-5
27%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
36%
Home Win
54%
33%
Draw
23%
31%
Away Win
23%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Akragas v Afragolese — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Akragas
The Market 58%
Head to Head
AWAY
Afragolese
The Market 26%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-47% /
-47%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-100%
/
+16%
53%
Ball Possession
47%
11
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
4
344 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
284 · 75%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Akragas vs Afragolese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Akragas nicked a narrow win over Afragolese 1-0.
Our pre-match split (36% / 33% / 31%) promised a tight game; Akragas found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
What was the final score of Akragas vs Afragolese?
Akragas 1-0 Afragolese in the Italy - Serie D on 26/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Akragas vs Afragolese?
Before kick-off our model rated a Akragas win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Akragas 36%, draw 33%, Afragolese 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Akragas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Akragas)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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