South Melbourne 1-0 Hume City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 26 Feb 2024

📅26/02/2024 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.15
Over 2.5
58%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
6%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
-0.0pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.8pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
43%
-0.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
57%
+0.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.9pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Hume City EU Bookmakers 32%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +10%
1.83/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.14/2.00
+0% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
309 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.7 Crosses 19.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Hume City
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
207 Passes 338
66% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.07.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-2 HT 1-1 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
08.04.2023 Hume City Hume City 0-0 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
18.06.2022 Hume City Hume City 1-3 HT 0-3 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
18.03.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 5-0 HT 4-0 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
01.05.2021 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-1 HT 1-0 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
18.04.2015 Hume City Hume City 0-1 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Hume City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne squeezed past Hume City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had South Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for South Melbourne and 0.67 for Hume City.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Hume City?

South Melbourne 1-0 Hume City in the Australia - National Premier League on 26/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Hume City?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 47%, draw 22%, Hume City 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South Melbourne) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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