Meksika 4-0 İzlanda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 26 Feb 2026

📅26/02/2026 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.3
Draw
16%
4.95
Away
16%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.29
Over 2.5
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
2.74
6+ Goals
9%
7.66
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.28 — our 27% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
26%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
16%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
72%
-4.1pp
16%
Draw
17%
-0.9pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+5.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
40%
+9.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
60%
-9.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.4pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Meksika EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY İzlanda EU Bookmakers 14%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
2.02/0.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/2.04
+5% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +0%
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
580 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 74%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
18.7 Crosses 10.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Meksika
3W-0D-0L
AWAY İzlanda
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.94 xG 0.19
69% Ball Possession 31%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
551 Passes 179
86% Pass Accuracy 66%
26 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.05.2021 Meksika Meksika 2-1 HT 0-1 İzlanda İzlanda HAZ
24.03.2018 Meksika Meksika 3-0 HT 1-0 İzlanda İzlanda HAZ
09.02.2017 Meksika Meksika 1-0 HT 1-0 İzlanda İzlanda HAZTUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Meksika
4-0
AWAY İzlanda
4.64 xG 0.80
57% Ball Possession 43%
24 Total Shots 4
11 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
490 Passes 363
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
44 Box Touches 6
20 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Meksika vs İzlanda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Meksika ran out comfortable winners over İzlanda 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Meksika as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Meksika had 57% of the ball to İzlanda's 43%, shots finished 24-4, expected goals 4.64 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Meksika had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Meksika and 0.33 for İzlanda.

What was the final score of Meksika vs İzlanda?

Meksika 4-0 İzlanda in the Friendlies on 26/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Meksika vs İzlanda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Meksika win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Meksika 68%, draw 16%, İzlanda 16%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Meksika), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Meksika) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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