Orense 1-1 Emelec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 26 Mar 2024

📅26/03/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
36%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
30%
+7.2pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.3pp
36%
Away Win
41%
-4.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.7pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orense EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Emelec EU Bookmakers 45%
+9% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -10%
1.20/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.26
+15% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +15%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
232 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
15.9 Crosses 16.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orense
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Emelec
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.20 xG 1.04
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
184 Passes 333
67% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.08.2023 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
06.03.2023 Orense Orense 2-1 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
10.10.2022 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
15.05.2022 Orense Orense 2-0 HT 2-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
16.10.2021 Emelec Emelec 1-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
02.05.2021 Orense Orense 2-3 HT 1-3 Emelec Emelec EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orense
1-1
AWAY Emelec
1.74 xG 0.78
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
318 Passes 251
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 19
30 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Orense vs Emelec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orense and Emelec shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Orense had 55% of the ball to Emelec's 45%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 1.74 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Orense and 0.83 for Emelec.

What was the final score of Orense vs Emelec?

Orense 1-1 Emelec in the Ecuador - Premier on 26/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orense vs Emelec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Orense 38%, draw 26%, Emelec 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Orense), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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