Avranches 1-3 Villefranche — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 26 Mar 2024

📅26/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.67
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.4
6+ Goals
8%
22.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.67 — our 31% vs market 31.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.82
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
9%
5.24
X/2
9%
5.41
X/X
10%
4.06
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
22%
3.98
2/X
7%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+2.7pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.2pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.2pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avranches EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Villefranche EU Bookmakers 38%
+8% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.28/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/0.72
+5% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +65%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
301 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avranches
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Villefranche
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2023 Avranches Avranches 0-2 HT 0-0 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
10.02.2023 Villefranche Villefranche 1-1 HT 1-1 Avranches Avranches FR3
02.09.2022 Avranches Avranches 2-1 HT 0-1 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
08.04.2022 Avranches Avranches 1-1 HT 0-1 Villefranche Villefranche FR3
05.11.2021 Villefranche Villefranche 3-0 HT 2-0 Avranches Avranches FR3
01.05.2021 Villefranche Villefranche 2-1 HT 2-1 Avranches Avranches FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avranches
1-3
AWAY Villefranche
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Avranches vs Villefranche
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villefranche got the better of Avranches 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 24% / 36% — and on the day Villefranche made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Avranches had 56% of the ball to Villefranche's 44%, shots finished 8-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villefranche led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Avranches and 1.67 for Villefranche.

What was the final score of Avranches vs Villefranche?

Avranches 1-3 Villefranche in the France - National League 1 on 26/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avranches vs Villefranche?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avranches win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Avranches 40%, draw 24%, Villefranche 36%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Avranches) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR3 More France - National League 1
26 Mar 2024
21:00 Monts dOr Azergues vs Sochaux Analysis →