Once Caldas 1-0 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 26 Mar 2024

📅26/03/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
60%
-8.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.6pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.5pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 20%
-16% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -7%
1.44/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.39
-39% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
321 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 76%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
25.7 Crosses 12.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.76 xG 0.62
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
330 Passes 261
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.09.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-1 HT 2-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
19.04.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-3 HT 0-2 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
24.10.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
09.05.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-0 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
25.09.2021 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
13.02.2021 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
1-0
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
1.29 xG 2.15
27% Ball Possession 73%
13 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
100 Passes 419
64% Pass Accuracy 90%
10 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas squeezed past Alianza Petrolera 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Once Caldas as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Once Caldas had 27% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 73%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.29 to 2.15 — the balance of chances actually favoured Alianza Petrolera.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Petrolera led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Once Caldas and 1.50 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera?

Once Caldas 1-0 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 26/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 51%, draw 26%, Alianza Petrolera 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Once Caldas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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