Lyon (K) 4-1 Bayern München (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League - Women's, 26 Mar 2025

Lyon (K)
4-1 HT 0-1
Bayern München (K)
📅26/03/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Champions League - Women's – 2024/2025

Lyon (K) vs Bayern München (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.32
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
18%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.61
Over 2.5
51%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.73
No
56%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
5.6
2-3 Goals
37%
2.0
4-5 Goals
26%
2.46
6+ Goals
10%
5.39
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.6 — our 27% vs market 12.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Lyon (K) win — 60% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
71%
-10.8pp
21%
Draw
17%
+4.5pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+6.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
35%
+14.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
65%
-14.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
54%
-9.7pp
56%
BTTS No
46%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon (K) v Bayern München (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon (K) EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern München (K) EU Bookmakers 15%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
2.74/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.81
-11% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +133% / +14%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
370 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 68%
43.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
28.9 Crosses 16.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9

Lyon (K) vs Bayern München (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon (K)
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Bayern München (K)
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.76 xG 0.56
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
394 Passes 320
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.03.2025 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) 0-2 HT 0-1 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) ŞMP-K
22.08.2020 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) 2-1 HT 1-0 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) ŞMP-K
16.08.2015 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) 3-1 HT 1-0 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) HAZ

Lyon (K) 4-1 Bayern München (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon (K)
4-1
AWAY Bayern München (K)
2.60 xG 0.68
42% Ball Possession 58%
19 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 6
273 Passes 405
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
37 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lyon (K) vs Bayern München (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon (K) ran out comfortable winners over Bayern München (K) 4-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lyon (K) as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lyon (K) had 42% of the ball to Bayern München (K)'s 58%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 2.60 to 0.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lyon (K) had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lyon (K) and 1.33 for Bayern München (K).

What was the final score of Lyon (K) vs Bayern München (K)?

Lyon (K) 4-1 Bayern München (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 26/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon (K) vs Bayern München (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Lyon (K) 60%, draw 21%, Bayern München (K) 18%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lyon (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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