Brisbane Roar 3-4 Adelaide United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 26 Apr 2024

Brisbane Roar
3-4 HT 1-1
Adelaide United
📅26/04/2024 · 🕒12:55 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
3.14
Over 2.5
59%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.32
No
36%
3.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
8.18
2-3 Goals
37%
2.33
4-5 Goals
28%
2.38
6+ Goals
17%
4.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.68
1/2
5%
24.45
1/X
10%
12.5
X/1
18%
5.46
X/2
11%
7.27
X/X
3%
6.93
2/1
4%
19.35
2/2
20%
3.97
2/X EV+ ✗
14%
12.55
Value flag · 2/X at 12.55 — our 14% vs market 5.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
45%
-7.7pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.8pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
28%
+12.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
72%
-12.4pp
64%
BTTS Yes
72%
-7.6pp
36%
BTTS No
28%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brisbane Roar v Adelaide United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +14%
1.73/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.68
-13% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
353 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 80%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
21.0 Crosses 21.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5

Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Adelaide United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.69 xG 1.48
46% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
316 Passes 402
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 0-2 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
04.02.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-1 HT 1-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
09.12.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-1 HT 0-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
31.08.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-2 HT 1-2 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUK
30.04.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-0 HT 2-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
23.01.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-3 HT 1-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS

Brisbane Roar 3-4 Adelaide United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
3-4
AWAY Adelaide United
1.99 xG 2.39
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 2
519 Passes 359
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
36 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adelaide United edged past Brisbane Roar 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Adelaide United made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (64%) came in.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 59% of the ball to Adelaide United's 41%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.99 to 2.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Adelaide United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.50 for Adelaide United.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United?

Brisbane Roar 3-4 Adelaide United in the Australia - A-League on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 38%, draw 27%, Adelaide United 36%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brisbane Roar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brisbane Roar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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