Parnu JK Vaprus 2-1 Nomme United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
31%
3.54
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.9
Over 2.5
42%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
4%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-6.6pp
31%
Draw
25%
+5.7pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
49%
+9.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
51%
-9.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.7pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Nomme United EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -42% / -42%
1.14/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/2.00
-26% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
356 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
2-1
AWAY Nomme United
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 1
11 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parnu JK Vaprus squeezed past Nomme United 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Parnu JK Vaprus as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 62% of the ball to Nomme United's 38%, shots finished 15-5.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme United?

Parnu JK Vaprus 2-1 Nomme United in the Estonia - Premium League on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 43%, draw 31%, Nomme United 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →