Montpellier 1-1 Nantes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 26 Apr 2024

Montpellier
1-1 HT 1-1
Nantes
📅26/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Montpellier vs Nantes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.34
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.53
6+ Goals
9%
13.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 28% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.68
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.5
X/1
18%
4.43
X/2
8%
7.39
X/X
10%
4.74
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
14%
5.47
2/X
10%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-6.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.0pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Montpellier v Nantes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Nantes EU Bookmakers 30%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +21%
1.85/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.22
+27% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +33%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
366 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
23.5 Crosses 18.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Montpellier vs Nantes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Nantes
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.98 xG 1.24
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
336 Passes 315
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Nantes Nantes 2-0 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
20.05.2023 Nantes Nantes 0-3 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
15.01.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 0-3 HT 0-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
06.03.2022 Nantes Nantes 2-0 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
31.10.2021 Montpellier Montpellier 2-0 HT 0-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
23.05.2021 Nantes Nantes 1-2 HT 1-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1

Montpellier 1-1 Nantes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
1-1
AWAY Nantes
0.81 xG 1.35
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
430 Passes 342
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Nantes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montpellier and Nantes couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Montpellier at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Montpellier had 53% of the ball to Nantes's 47%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.81 to 1.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Montpellier and 1.33 for Nantes.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Nantes?

Montpellier 1-1 Nantes in the France - Ligue 1 on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Nantes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montpellier win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 41%, draw 28%, Nantes 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Montpellier) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Montpellier) ✓ Under 2.5
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