Sorrento 3-1 Stirling Lions — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.84
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
47%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
Over Pick
58%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
20%
2-3
37%
4-5
27%
6+
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
31%
-1.8pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
47%
Away Win
45%
+2.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.1pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sorrento EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Stirling Lions EU Bookmakers 49%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +15%
1.59/2.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.13/1.30
+5% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sorrento
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Stirling Lions
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.07.2023 Stirling Lions Stirling Lions 1-1 HT 0-1 Sorrento Sorrento AVUSB
15.04.2023 Sorrento Sorrento 1-2 HT 1-1 Stirling Lions Stirling Lions AVNPL
03.09.2022 Stirling Lions Stirling Lions 0-2 HT 0-1 Sorrento Sorrento AVUSB
27.08.2022 Stirling Lions Stirling Lions 1-2 HT 1-0 Sorrento Sorrento AVNPL
04.06.2022 Sorrento Sorrento 1-1 HT 1-0 Stirling Lions Stirling Lions AVNPL
05.07.2014 Stirling Lions Stirling Lions 1-1 HT 1-0 Sorrento Sorrento AVNPL
POST-MATCH Sorrento vs Stirling Lions
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sorrento beat Stirling Lions 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Stirling Lions at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sorrento had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sorrento and 1.00 for Stirling Lions.

What was the final score of Sorrento vs Stirling Lions?

Sorrento 3-1 Stirling Lions in the Australia - National Premier League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sorrento vs Stirling Lions?

Before kick-off our model rated an Stirling Lions win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sorrento 30%, draw 23%, Stirling Lions 47%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stirling Lions) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stirling Lions) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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