Nacional de Football 1-0 Danubio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.49
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
Over 2.5
47%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
26%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
62%
-6.4pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.5pp
19%
Away Win
15%
+3.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.7pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Danubio EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
1.97/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.34
+11% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +20%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
336 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 191 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Danubio
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.11.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-3 HT 1-1 Danubio Danubio URU
09.04.2023 Danubio Danubio 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
24.10.2022 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-0 HT 2-0 Danubio Danubio URU
05.06.2022 Danubio Danubio 2-1 HT 1-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
13.03.2021 Danubio Danubio 2-1 HT 1-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
14.09.2020 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-0 HT 1-0 Danubio Danubio URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional de Football
1-0
AWAY Danubio
61% Ball Possession 39%
10 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 0
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs Danubio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football edged past Danubio 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Nacional de Football had 61% of the ball to Danubio's 39%, shots finished 10-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Danubio led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Nacional de Football and 1.17 for Danubio.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Danubio?

Nacional de Football 1-0 Danubio in the Uruguay - Premier League on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Danubio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 56%, draw 25%, Danubio 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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