Umea FC 3-3 Örgryte — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 26 May 2025

Umea FC
3-3 HT 2-1
Örgryte
📅26/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Sweden - Superettan – 2026

Umea FC vs Örgryte Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.75
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
46%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.23
Over 2.5
45%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.77
6+ Goals
10%
7.67
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.4 — our 25% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.71
1/2
6%
20.6
1/X
4%
14.95
X/1
7%
9.37
X/2
9%
4.54
X/X EV+ ✗
17%
6.02
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
31%
2.23
2/X
8%
13.75
Value flag · X/X at 6.02 — our 17% vs market 12.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
23%
+2.0pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.6pp
46%
Away Win
53%
-7.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
41%
+13.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
59%
-13.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.5pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Umea FC v Örgryte — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Umea FC EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Örgryte EU Bookmakers 57%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
0.43/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/0.34
-68% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +150%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
196 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 2.3

Umea FC vs Örgryte Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Umea FC
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Örgryte
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
05.12.2020 Örgryte Örgryte 1-1 HT 1-0 Umea FC Umea FC İSÇ2
13.08.2020 Umea FC Umea FC 2-2 HT 0-1 Örgryte Örgryte İSÇ2
POST-MATCH Umea FC vs Örgryte
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Umea FC and Örgryte shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Örgryte at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Umea FC and 1.50 for Örgryte.

What was the final score of Umea FC vs Örgryte?

Umea FC 3-3 Örgryte in the Sweden - Superettan on 26/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Umea FC vs Örgryte?

Before kick-off our model rated an Örgryte win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Umea FC 25%, draw 29%, Örgryte 46%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Örgryte), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Örgryte) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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