Naples 3-1 Union Omaha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 26 May 2025

📅26/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
10%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-1.0pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.4pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+2.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.7pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naples EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Omaha EU Bookmakers 38%
-28% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +16%
0.88/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/0.98
-63% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
353 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
26.5 Crosses 20.0
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naples
3-1
AWAY Union Omaha
1.10 xG 1.27
29% Ball Possession 71%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 9
132 Passes 424
60% Pass Accuracy 83%
8 Box Touches 16
6 Crosses 38
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Naples vs Union Omaha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naples saw off Union Omaha 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 37%) promised a tight game; Naples found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Naples had 29% of the ball to Union Omaha's 71%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 1.10 to 1.27.

What was the final score of Naples vs Union Omaha?

Naples 3-1 Union Omaha in the USA - USL League 1 on 26/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naples vs Union Omaha?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Omaha win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Naples 34%, draw 29%, Union Omaha 37%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Union Omaha) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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