V-Varen Nagasaki 3-1 Iwaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 26 Jun 2024

📅26/06/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.95
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.14
6+ Goals
11%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.95 — our 31% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.3pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Iwaki EU Bookmakers 29%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
2.15/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/0.82
+47% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +86% / +60%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
292 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Iwaki
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
06.08.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-0 HT 0-0 Iwaki Iwaki JAP2
29.04.2023 Iwaki Iwaki 0-1 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
3-1
AWAY Iwaki
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Iwaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki got the better of Iwaki 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had V-Varen Nagasaki as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 61% of the ball to Iwaki's 39%, shots finished 15-7.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 0.00 for Iwaki.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Iwaki?

V-Varen Nagasaki 3-1 Iwaki in the Japan - J2 League on 26/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Iwaki?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 44%, draw 26%, Iwaki 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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