Corinthians 2-2 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 26 Jul 2024

📅26/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.54
Over 2.5
38%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.76
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.95
X/1
16%
4.07
X/2
10%
7.46
X/X
18%
3.85
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
10%
6.41
2/X
7%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-6.5pp
32%
Draw
28%
+3.0pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
61%
+0.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
39%
-0.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.4pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 27%
+7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.36/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.58
+9% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
23.0 Crosses 15.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Gremio
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.79 xG 1.43
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
402 Passes 410
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2023 Gremio Gremio 0-1 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
19.09.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 4-4 HT 3-2 Gremio Gremio BR1
05.12.2021 Corinthians Corinthians 1-1 HT 0-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
29.08.2021 Gremio Gremio 0-1 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
23.11.2020 Corinthians Corinthians 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
16.08.2020 Gremio Gremio 0-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
2-2
AWAY Gremio
1.62 xG 0.95
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
400 Passes 194
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians and Gremio couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Corinthians at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Corinthians had 64% of the ball to Gremio's 36%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 1.62 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Corinthians and 0.83 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Gremio?

Corinthians 2-2 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 41%, draw 32%, Gremio 27%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Corinthians) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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