Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.82
2-3 Goals
36%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.0
6+ Goals
9%
9.59
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 30% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-1.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.6pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.2pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki EU Bookmakers 33%
-6% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-31% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
265 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
1-1
AWAY Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
52% Ball Possession 48%
7 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Puszcza Niepolomice vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puszcza Niepolomice and Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Puszcza Niepolomice at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Puszcza Niepolomice had 52% of the ball to Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki's 48%, shots finished 7-5.

What was the final score of Puszcza Niepolomice vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki?

Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki in the Poland - 1st Division on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puszcza Niepolomice vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puszcza Niepolomice win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Puszcza Niepolomice 43%, draw 24%, Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Puszcza Niepolomice), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Puszcza Niepolomice) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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