Wisla Plock 3-2 Ruch Chorzow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 26 Aug 2024

📅26/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.38
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.51
6+ Goals
10%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 28% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-2.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.4pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wisla Plock EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Ruch Chorzow EU Bookmakers 33%
+16% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.83/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/0.88
+21% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +57%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
367 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wisla Plock
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Ruch Chorzow
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
29.04.2017 Wisla Plock Wisla Plock 1-1 HT 0-0 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow POL
10.12.2016 Wisla Plock Wisla Plock 4-3 HT 2-2 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow POL
08.08.2016 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow 2-2 HT 1-1 Wisla Plock Wisla Plock POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wisla Plock
3-2
AWAY Ruch Chorzow
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Wisla Plock vs Ruch Chorzow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wisla Plock edged past Ruch Chorzow 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Wisla Plock as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Wisla Plock had 56% of the ball to Ruch Chorzow's 44%, shots finished 11-5.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Wisla Plock had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Wisla Plock and 2.00 for Ruch Chorzow.

What was the final score of Wisla Plock vs Ruch Chorzow?

Wisla Plock 3-2 Ruch Chorzow in the Poland - 1st Division on 26/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wisla Plock vs Ruch Chorzow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wisla Plock win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Wisla Plock 41%, draw 28%, Ruch Chorzow 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wisla Plock) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Wisla Plock) ✗ Under 2.5
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