CF Os Belenenses 1-0 Lusitania — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 26 Aug 2024

CF Os Belenenses
1-0 HT 0-0
Lusitania
📅26/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Portugal - 3rd Division – 2024/2025

CF Os Belenenses vs Lusitania Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
8%
1/X
13%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
52%
-6.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.7pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.5pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

CF Os Belenenses v Lusitania — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CF Os Belenenses EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania EU Bookmakers 26%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
1.47/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.00
+15% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
365 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
4.1 Yellow Cards 3.0

CF Os Belenenses 1-0 Lusitania — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CF Os Belenenses
1-0
AWAY Lusitania
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH CF Os Belenenses vs Lusitania
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Os Belenenses squeezed past Lusitania 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had CF Os Belenenses as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, CF Os Belenenses had 60% of the ball to Lusitania's 40%, shots finished 11-7.

What was the final score of CF Os Belenenses vs Lusitania?

CF Os Belenenses 1-0 Lusitania in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 26/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CF Os Belenenses vs Lusitania?

Before kick-off our model rated a CF Os Belenenses win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split CF Os Belenenses 45%, draw 30%, Lusitania 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CF Os Belenenses), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CF Os Belenenses) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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