26/09/2024
·
02:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-0
2nd Score
0-1
Frontera vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
35%
4-5
25%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
34%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 61% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH
Away Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
21%
Home Win
6%
28%
Draw
15%
51%
Away Win
80%
51%
Under 2.5
36%
49%
Over 2.5
64%
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
61%
BTTS No
60%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Frontera v Nacional — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Frontera
The Market 8%
Head to Head
AWAY
Nacional
The Market 84%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-19% /
-19%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-17%
/
-63%
40%
Ball Possession
60%
9
Total Shots
21
2
Shots on Target
8
4
Corners
9
128 · 54%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
476 · 77%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
2.0
POST-MATCH
Frontera vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Nacional cruised past Frontera 5-1 away from home. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Nacional as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Frontera vs Nacional?
Frontera 1-5 Nacional in the Uruguay Cup on 26/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Frontera vs Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Frontera 21%, draw 28%, Nacional 51%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Nacional)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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