Excelsior 0-1 Cambuur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Oct 2024

Excelsior
0-1 HT 0-1
Cambuur
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

Excelsior vs Cambuur Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
24%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.48
2-3 Goals
36%
2.01
4-5 Goals
28%
2.66
6+ Goals
16%
6.44
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.38
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
17%
4.66
X/2
7%
8.34
X/X
10%
6.03
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.45
2/2
12%
5.29
2/X
6%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.45 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
51%
+1.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
24%
Away Win
26%
-1.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-10.1pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Excelsior v Cambuur — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Cambuur EU Bookmakers 29%
+9% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
2.38/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.48
+73% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
21.0 Crosses 17.4
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.9

Excelsior vs Cambuur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Cambuur
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.33 xG 3.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
219 Passes 388
69% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 32
19 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.03.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 4-1 HT 4-0 Cambuur Cambuur HOL
06.08.2022 Cambuur Cambuur 0-2 HT 0-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
05.04.2021 Cambuur Cambuur 7-2 HT 1-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
20.12.2020 Excelsior Excelsior 0-1 HT 0-1 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
22.12.2019 Excelsior Excelsior 1-3 HT 0-2 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
04.10.2019 Cambuur Cambuur 4-0 HT 3-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2

Excelsior 0-1 Cambuur — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
0-1
AWAY Cambuur
1.19 xG 0.45
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 7
315 Passes 210
75% Pass Accuracy 64%
19 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs Cambuur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cambuur squeezed past Excelsior 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Excelsior at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Excelsior had 57% of the ball to Cambuur's 43%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.19 to 0.45 — on chances, Excelsior could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cambuur led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Excelsior and 2.67 for Cambuur.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs Cambuur?

Excelsior 0-1 Cambuur in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs Cambuur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 52%, draw 24%, Cambuur 24%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Excelsior) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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