Kapaz 1-2 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
7.95
Draw
18%
5.15
Away
67%
1.26
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.23
Over 2.5
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
5%
X/2
21%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
37%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
10%
+5.7pp
17%
Draw
16%
+1.5pp
67%
Away Win
74%
-7.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+5.0pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kapaz EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 79%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -9%
0.68/1.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.23/0.62
+21% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -26%
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
218 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 474 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kapaz
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Karabağ
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
36% Ball Possession 64%
4 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.11.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 7-1 HT 5-1 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
27.08.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 1-1 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
09.04.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 1-1 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
04.02.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 1-1 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
06.11.2022 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
01.09.2022 Kapaz Kapaz 0-1 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Kapaz vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ nicked a narrow win over Kapaz 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kapaz and 2.67 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Kapaz vs Karabağ?

Kapaz 1-2 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kapaz vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Kapaz 15%, draw 17%, Karabağ 67%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5
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