Paranoa 4-3 Ceilandense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Brasiliense, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
5.09
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
46%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under
30%
Over Pick
70%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Total Goals
0-1
16%
2-3
34%
4-5
34%
6+
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
19%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 70%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
31%
Home Win
17%
+14.5pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.9pp
46%
Away Win
62%
-15.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paranoa The Market 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceilandense The Market 66%
+76% / +76% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+64% / +67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
241 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 474 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paranoa
4-3
AWAY Ceilandense
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
POST-MATCH Paranoa vs Ceilandense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paranoa nicked a narrow win over Ceilandense 4-3. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Ceilandense at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (70%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Paranoa had 54% of the ball to Ceilandense's 46%, shots finished 15-13.

What was the final score of Paranoa vs Ceilandense?

Paranoa 4-3 Ceilandense in the Brazil - Brasiliense on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paranoa vs Ceilandense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ceilandense win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Paranoa 31%, draw 22%, Ceilandense 46%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ceilandense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ceilandense) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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