Nova Venécia 2-2 Vitoria ES — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Capixaba, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.3
Draw
29%
4.81
Away
22%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
Over
43%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Total Goals
0-1
23%
2-3
44%
4-5
26%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
14%
X/1
16%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
48%
Home Win
72%
-23.5pp
29%
Draw
17%
+11.9pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nova Venécia The Market 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria ES The Market 14%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.91/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.00
+0% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +139% / +98%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
397 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nova Venécia
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Vitoria ES
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
08.04.2023 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES 2-0 HT 0-0 Nova Venécia Nova Venécia BRCAP
01.04.2023 Nova Venécia Nova Venécia 3-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES BRCAP
16.02.2023 Nova Venécia Nova Venécia 2-1 HT 2-1 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES BRCAP
20.04.2022 Nova Venécia Nova Venécia 1-3 HT 0-2 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES BRCAP
13.04.2022 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES 1-2 Nova Venécia Nova Venécia BRCAP
24.02.2022 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES 0-3 HT 0-0 Nova Venécia Nova Venécia BRCAP
POST-MATCH Nova Venécia vs Vitoria ES
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nova Venécia and Vitoria ES shared the points in a 2-2 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Nova Venécia at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nova Venécia had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Nova Venécia and 1.33 for Vitoria ES.

What was the final score of Nova Venécia vs Vitoria ES?

Nova Venécia 2-2 Vitoria ES in the Brazil - Capixaba on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nova Venécia vs Vitoria ES?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nova Venécia win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Nova Venécia 48%, draw 29%, Vitoria ES 22%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nova Venécia), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nova Venécia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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