Caxias 2-2 Sao Luiz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Gaucho 1, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.57
Draw
28%
2.66
Away
25%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
72%
Over
28%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
32%
No
68%
Total Goals
0-1
40%
2-3
42%
4-5
14%
6+
4%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
25%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
4%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 72%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
47%
Home Win
35%
+11.4pp
28%
Draw
34%
-5.8pp
25%
Away Win
31%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caxias The Market 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Luiz The Market 34%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
1.34/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.46/1.00
+62% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / -18%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
292 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caxias
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Sao Luiz
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.02.2023 Caxias Caxias 3-1 HT 1-1 Sao Luiz Sao Luiz BRG1
25.06.2022 Caxias Caxias 2-1 HT 1-0 Sao Luiz Sao Luiz BRE4
08.05.2022 Sao Luiz Sao Luiz 1-1 HT 0-0 Caxias Caxias BRE4
17.02.2022 Sao Luiz Sao Luiz 1-0 HT 0-0 Caxias Caxias BRG1
29.03.2021 Caxias Caxias 4-0 HT 3-0 Sao Luiz Sao Luiz BRG1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caxias
2-2
AWAY Sao Luiz
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Caxias vs Sao Luiz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caxias and Sao Luiz couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Caxias at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (72%), no to both teams scoring (68%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Caxias had 48% of the ball to Sao Luiz's 52%, shots finished 10-9.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Caxias had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Caxias and 0.80 for Sao Luiz.

What was the final score of Caxias vs Sao Luiz?

Caxias 2-2 Sao Luiz in the Brazil - Gaucho 1 on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caxias vs Sao Luiz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caxias win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Caxias 47%, draw 28%, Sao Luiz 25%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Caxias) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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