Sporting Braga 1-1 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - League Cup, 27 Jan 2024

Sporting Braga
1-1 HT 1-1
Estoril
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Portugal - League Cup – 2023/2024

Sporting Braga vs Estoril Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.47
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.23
Over 2.5
47%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.65
2-3 Goals
43%
1.9
4-5 Goals
21%
2.83
6+ Goals
10%
7.92
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.65 — our 26% vs market 16.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.76
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
16.55
X/1
21%
3.77
X/2
7%
13.1
X/X
9%
6.48
2/1
9%
20.95
2/2
8%
9.68
2/X
9%
17.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
64%
-9.0pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.8pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+12.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-12.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.8pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Braga v Estoril — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 19%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.76/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/1.68
-1% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +2%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
395 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Sporting Braga vs Estoril Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Estoril
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.27 xG 0.55
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
457 Passes 303
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.12.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-1 HT 1-1 Estoril Estoril POR
08.04.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 4-1 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
22.10.2022 Estoril Estoril 0-2 HT 0-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
18.04.2022 Estoril Estoril 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
05.12.2021 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-0 HT 2-0 Estoril Estoril POR
17.12.2020 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-1 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril PORLC

Sporting Braga 1-1 Estoril — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
1-1
AWAY Estoril
0.44 xG 0.91
69% Ball Possession 31%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
515 Passes 197
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga and Estoril couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sporting Braga at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 69% of the ball to Estoril's 31%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.44 to 0.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Sporting Braga and 0.50 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Estoril?

Sporting Braga 1-1 Estoril in the Portugal - League Cup on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 55%, draw 25%, Estoril 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sporting Braga), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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