Nacional vs CA Penarol Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nacional v CA Penarol — Team-Based Signals
Nacional vs CA Penarol Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
Nacional 2-1 CA Penarol — Actual Match Statistics
Nacional edged past CA Penarol 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.
Our pre-match lean was CA Penarol at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Nacional had 43% of the ball to CA Penarol's 57%, shots finished 6-12.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nacional and 1.00 for CA Penarol.
What was the final score of Nacional vs CA Penarol?
Nacional 2-1 CA Penarol in the Uruguay Super Cup on 27/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nacional vs CA Penarol?
Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Nacional 25%, draw 33%, CA Penarol 42%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.