Al Ahly 5-1 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 27 Feb 2024

📅27/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.27
Draw
26%
5.28
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.21
Over 2.5
47%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.36
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
2.95
6+ Goals
10%
8.88
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.36 — our 28% vs market 18.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
75%
-16.5pp
26%
Draw
16%
+9.5pp
16%
Away Win
9%
+7.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.7pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Baladiyyat Al Mehalla EU Bookmakers 11%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.76/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.92
+8% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +139% / -34%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
406 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 74%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.9
20.1 Crosses 14.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahly
5-1
AWAY Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
1.80 xG 1.23
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
424 Passes 324
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 15
7 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Ahly vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahly cruised past Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Ahly as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Ahly had 55% of the ball to Baladiyyat Al Mehalla's 45%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.80 to 1.23.

What was the final score of Al Ahly vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla?

Al Ahly 5-1 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla in the Egypt - Premier League on 27/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahly vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Al Ahly 58%, draw 26%, Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 16%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahly) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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