Progreso 4-2 Rampla Juniors — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 27 Mar 2024

📅27/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-8.3pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.0pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Rampla Juniors EU Bookmakers 25%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
0.81/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/2.11
-51% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -35%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
384 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Rampla Juniors
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 1
24.06.2023 Rampla Juniors Rampla Juniors 0-1 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU2
16.04.2023 Rampla Juniors Rampla Juniors 2-2 HT 1-1 Progreso Progreso URU2
20.08.2022 Progreso Progreso 0-1 HT 0-1 Rampla Juniors Rampla Juniors URU2
15.09.2019 Progreso Progreso 2-2 HT 2-1 Rampla Juniors Rampla Juniors URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
4-2
AWAY Rampla Juniors
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 10
6 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Rampla Juniors
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso saw off Rampla Juniors 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Progreso as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Progreso had 46% of the ball to Rampla Juniors's 54%, shots finished 11-14.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Progreso and 1.25 for Rampla Juniors.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Rampla Juniors?

Progreso 4-2 Rampla Juniors in the Uruguay - Premier League on 27/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Rampla Juniors?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Progreso 45%, draw 27%, Rampla Juniors 27%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Progreso) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Progreso) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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