USM El Harrach 1-1 Mostaganem — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Algeria - National Cup, 27 Mar 2025

USM El Harrach
1-1 HT 1-0
Mostaganem
📅27/03/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Algeria - National Cup – 2024/2025

USM El Harrach vs Mostaganem Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
33%
2.83
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.52
Over 2.5
39%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.44
No
59%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
19%
X/2
13%
X/X
19%
2/1
4%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 61% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-3.1pp
33%
Draw
32%
+0.8pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.3pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
37%
+4.6pp
59%
BTTS No
63%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

USM El Harrach v Mostaganem — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME USM El Harrach EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Mostaganem EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +58% / +58%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +95% / +8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
288 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 2.0

USM El Harrach 1-1 Mostaganem — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME USM El Harrach
1-1
AWAY Mostaganem
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH USM El Harrach vs Mostaganem
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

USM El Harrach and Mostaganem couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 33% / 27% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, USM El Harrach had 50% of the ball to Mostaganem's 50%, shots finished 11-11.

What was the final score of USM El Harrach vs Mostaganem?

USM El Harrach 1-1 Mostaganem in the Algeria - National Cup on 27/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for USM El Harrach vs Mostaganem?

Before kick-off our model rated a USM El Harrach win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split USM El Harrach 40%, draw 33%, Mostaganem 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (USM El Harrach), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (USM El Harrach) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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