JFK Ventspils 2-2 Progress / AFA Olaine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
2.03
Over
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No Pick
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
40%
4-5
22%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
3%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
48%
-0.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-1.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.9pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME JFK Ventspils EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 31%
-62% / -62% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
0.50/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/2.37
-79% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
351 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME JFK Ventspils
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
13.08.2023 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine 1-1 HT 1-1 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils LET1
15.04.2023 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils 1-2 HT 1-1 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
POST-MATCH JFK Ventspils vs Progress / AFA Olaine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

JFK Ventspils and Progress / AFA Olaine couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was JFK Ventspils at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Progress / AFA Olaine led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for JFK Ventspils and 1.50 for Progress / AFA Olaine.

What was the final score of JFK Ventspils vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

JFK Ventspils 2-2 Progress / AFA Olaine in the Latvia - 1st Division on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for JFK Ventspils vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Before kick-off our model rated a JFK Ventspils win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split JFK Ventspils 48%, draw 26%, Progress / AFA Olaine 26%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (JFK Ventspils), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (JFK Ventspils) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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